I was encouraged when Jan Hatsius, Goldman Sach’s Chief Economist, described the housing market in downright positive terms in this video from late last week. First, let me say I don’t buy a lot of what Wall Street firms shovel out. They can be pretty loose in the analytics department, making statements that seem disconnected from reality or even misleading. I think “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver outlined these issues pretty clearly and looking back at 2008, one shouldn’t need any more reason to be cautious with their predictions.
That being said, Jan Hatsius’ process has my respect. He is very careful about overstating what he can say based on the data he is looking at. That’s in part why I am encouraged by his statements about the housing market. In particular, the following is good news:
In the interest of full disclosure, elsewhere in his statements recently he has predicted rising interest rates which, although expected, won’t be good for the economy.
So here’s to Jan and hoping that he’s right!